Previous Life

Dr. MICHAEL L. ULREY                                         

SUMMARY OF KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS

Leadership:

  • Greener Skies Contract (2011-2014)- Led the Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) team that provided the modeling and simulation skills to successfully complete the FAA’s SE2020 “Greener Skies” contract. As part of this effort, I
    • Led development and application of tools to perform safety analyses of new airspace operations for the FAA,
    • Developed presentation materials, both oral and written, for various meetings with the FAA customer(s), including strategic, programmatic, and technical items,
    • Wrote major portions of most of the deliverables to the FAA, including the primary deliverable, the final Modeling and Simulation Report.

Engineering and Technical:

  • Modeling and Simulation-
  • Developed a suite of tools for fast-time modeling and performance analysis of new airspace operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) (2009-2014).
  • Developed a suite of modeling and simulation tools for reliability and safety analysis. I used these tools to perform safety analyses of aircraft flight control systems and related subsystems, both for the
  • NASA-Boeing “Fly-By-Light” airplane (1991-1995) and
  • Joint Strike Fighter control system safety analysis (1997-2000). 
  • Reliability and Safety-
  • Developed safety analyses for
  • RTCA SC-186 committee and Requirements Focus Group (RFG) standards work (2006-2010), 
  • Global Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance System (GCNSS) project (2003-2004).
  • Software-
  • At Boeing, I have been responsible for the development and configuration control of the Modern Control Theory Software Package (MPAC) for the development and testing of aircraft flight control systems. Used on several Boeing commercial and military aircraft, including the 777.
  • At Raytheon, I was part of a team that performed operational test and debug on the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) radar installation software in Thule, Greenland.
  • Over the years, I have written many programs in FORTRAN, Ada, Jovial, C, C++, Lisp, Matlab, and Mathematica. I am also conversant in system dynamics, having designed a representation of aircraft separation (using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B)) in the Vensim language.
  • Mathematics-Taught undergraduate/graduate level math, statistics, probability, automatic controls, and did research in reliability theory and information theory (publications listed below).
  • Radar-Target detection and association, Kalman filtering, object classification, phased array radar, over-the-horizon radar, image processing. Performance evaluation software tools, test, debug and integration.
  • Flight Controls-Classical and modern control techniques for analysis and synthesis.  Algorithm and software tool development, simulation, and teaching.
  • CAD/CAM-circuit board layout. Algorithm and software tool development.

 

KEY TECHNICAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Modeling and Simulation Tool Development and Application, Boeing Research and Technology Air Traffic Management (ATM), 2009-2014

I was the chief developer and technical lead of a team that produced a suite of tools for the modeling and analysis of closely-spaced parallel approaches enabled by Required Navigation Performance (RNP) capabilities of modern transport aircraft. This suite of tools is very comprehensive and enables a wide range of safety analyses over a wide range of environments. It is unique in the industry in the way it combines fast-time modeling for normal operational analysis with fault-event tree tools for non-normal operational analysis.

This work started with a cost-share contract with UK’s National Air Traffic Services (NATS) at Heathrow airport in London to increase the throughput of the approach and landing operations while maintaining or improving safety levels (2008-2010). I developed the requisite tools in Mathematica (from Wolfram Research), a modern symbolic and pattern-matching based mathematical and functional programming environment. This enabled the rapid construction of fast-time models for the investigation of safety issues such as collision risk and so-called “nuisance” Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) alerts.

More work to extend the capabilities was done under Internal Research and Development (IR&D) funding, and shortly thereafter an FAA contract under the NextGen SE2020 program was secured (2011). The period of performance for this contract was from November 2011 to April 2014. During this period I lead a team of three people (including myself) to continue and extend the tools and their capabilities and to apply these capabilities to meeting the contract requirements. Not only were the Mathematica fast-time modeling capabilities improved and extended for the normal operational analysis, but a whole new set of capabilities for the non-normal operational analysis was developed in the Reliability Workbench environment (from Isograph, Inc.).

This contract contains one of the key operational improvements singled out by the FAA’s own NextGen program to modernize the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), namely the ability to conduct landing and approach operations that save track miles and fuel, thus reducing environmental noise and emissions (hence the name “Greener Skies” for the project).

 Successful completion of the contract was achieved by April 2014 with the delivery of 18 items, including a 300-page Modeling and Simulation Report (accompanied by 7 Gb of analysis data), plus a Safety Risk Management Document (SRMD) containing all the artifacts needed to help the FAA close similar safety cases in the future across the NAS. 

Reliability and Safety Tool Development and Application, Boeing Defense and Space Group, 1991-1999

Associate Technical Fellow (Boeing)                                         michael.l.ulrey@boeing.com

I co-developed (with NASA Langley) the Reliability Performance Module (RPM), a systems reliability tool with a graphical interface. My contribution to RPM was to embed a reliability execution engine (originally developed at NASA Langley) into a commercial tool called Block Oriented Network Simulator (BONeS). BONeS was originally designed to calculate performance parameters for large-scale telecommunication and data networks. Its computational paradigm was a discrete event simulation engine. Since RPM inherited the BONeS interface, it enabled typical engineers, possibly without a reliability background, to view their systems in a familiar block diagram format, entering both deterministic and stochastic parameters and behaviors. The block diagram representing the system was executable, and the stochastic behaviors of the various components were used by the embedded reliability execution engine to compute probabilities of overall system failure, or other events of interest, for example, degraded performance. The overall system behavior was simulated based on pre-defined component behaviors and external stimuli. Various failure states were generated using a depth-first search, and the corresponding probabilities computed analytically.

One of the attractive features of this tool was the fact that, as the system design changed, only the block diagram needed to be updated, and the reliability analysis was re-done automatically in the background. There was no need for an engineer to modify fault trees, for instance, which can be a tedious and error-prone process. Results of this work were presented at the 1995 Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability (RAMS) symposium, and can be found in the conference proceedings (see Papers below).

I used the RPM on two Boeing internal projects. The first was to predict the reliability of the flight control system for the Boeing/NASA fly-by-light airplane, which was based on the 777 architecture, but used fiber-optic components in place of electrical ones as far as practicable. This work was presented at the 1996 RAMS symposium, and can be found in the conference proceedings (see Papers below).

RPM was also used to estimate the probability of loss of control (PLOC) of the vehicle management system (VMS) of Boeing’s prototype Joint Strike Fighter contender, the X-32. The model included the air data and inertial sensors, actuators, flight and engine control systems, and hydraulic and electrical systems. The hierarchical nature of the BONeS environment enabled the modular development of the various systems, which could be analyzed separately, or connected together so that the entire VMS could be analyzed.

AWARDS

Associate Tech Fellow, Boeing Research and Technology 2007.

Wolfram Innovator, Wolfram Research 2011,  <http://www.wolfram.com/events/technology-conference/innovator-award/>

ONLINE PRESENTATIONS

PUBLICATIONS

Software Tools:

  • Mathematica Powerful functional programming language based on symbolic manipulation and pattern matching
  • Reliability Workbench  Combined fault tree and Markov modeling.
  • Availability Workbench   Monte Carlo simulation for availability analysis.
  • MatLab  Linear algebra, general math, and simulation.
  • LaTex   Math document preparation program.

WORK WITH OR FOR GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND COMMITTEES

  • FAA NextGen SE2020 contract “Greener Skies”: Safety case development for the use of Required Navigation Performance (RNP) in closely-spaced parallel approaches, initially at SeaTac, then ultimately throughout the U.S. National Airspace.
  • Environmentally Optimized Runway Approaches (EORA) at London Heathrow – worked with UK NATS service provider and British Airways to develop a safety case.
  • Global Comm, Nav and Surv System (GCNSS) contract work for the FAA, 2003
  • Working Together Team, Boeing ATM, September 2001 through February 2002
  • Report on NASA AvSTAR program, 2001
  • Participation in RTCA airborne separation assurance standards work (RTCA SC-186 working group 4)
  • International safety technical interchange meetings and conferences
  • Joint Strike Fighter program (1995-1999) – interactions with Air Force and government personnel.

EDUCATION

  • Ph.D. Mathematics, Ohio State University, June 1973
  • M.Sc. Mathematics, Ohio State University, June 1969
  • A.B. Mathematics, Kenyon College, June 1967
  • Company-sponsored training: Statistical methods for product life analysis, software reliability, software engineering, programming management, digital signal processing, microprocessors, radar technology, and passive surveillance and target tracking.
Job History: Boeing Air Traffic Management (ATM) from 2000 to 2014
DatesTitle or RoleJob DescriptionOutcome or Product
11/01/2011 to 04/01/2014Technical lead for safety analysis, FAA SE2020 “Greener Skies” contractResponsible for directing safety analysis activities. Led efforts to apply modeling and simulation tools for investigation of risk of collision, nuisance TCAS alerts, and wake encounters in closely-spaced parallel approach operations using Required Navigation Performance (RNP) capabilities of modern transport aircraft.My role: Successful application of tools we developed in-house to make a safety case for Greener Skies operations. Overall project: Multiple deliverables to FAA including 300-page Modeling and Simulation Report, hazard tables, and Safety Risk Management Document (SRMD). Provides documentation for potential future FAA Safety Risk Management Panels (SRMP) to certify relevant RNP airspace operations, as appropriate.
11/01/2011 to 04/01/2014Technical lead for internal research and development (IR&D) for safety methodologiesDirect activities to produce modeling and simulation packages and fault and event tree packages for use in safety analysis of new airspace operationsMy role: Successful development of comprehensive tool suite using Mathematica (Wolfram Research) to model normal operational performance. Successful development of models using Reliability Workbench (Isograph) to analyze non-normal conditions. Overall project: Tools applied directly to FAA’s SE202 Greener Skies contract. Similar work to be undertaken in Heathrow, Atlanta, Denver, Oslo.
2011-2012Safety lead from Boeing on Volpe contract to FAA’s System Safety Management Transformation (SSMT) initiativeProvide industry input and expertise with regard to safety. Objective is to compare today’s throughput and safety levels to future (2015) throughput and safety levels which will accrue due to the effects of Operational Improvements outlined in the FAA’s NextGen program.My role: Led a successful effort to identify OI’s (from a list of 51) which do or do not affect safety and which ones have relevance to runway incursions or excursions. Also produced the data flow and system modeling diagram which guided the efforts of all the participants. I moved on to SE2020 Greener Skies full time in early 2012. Overall project: Project is still proceeding to produce analysis of capacity and safety in the NAS.
2006-2010Consultant on international flight standards committeeBoeing safety representative to RTCA SC-186 committee and Requirements Focus Group (RFG), helping to develop global standards for new operational concepts, including ADS-B in radar and non-radar areas (NRA), in-trail procedures (ITP), and enhanced visual separation assurance (VSA).My role: Successful development of operational safety assessments (OSA), operational hazard assessments (OHA), and safety and performance requirements (SPR) packages. Overall project: Use of ADS-B in the Gulf of Mexico. Also helps prevent unreasonable requirements being levied on airplane manufacturers.
2008-2009Technical safety lead from Boeing on Environmentally Optimized Required Navigation Performance Arrivals (EORA) at Heathrow AirportWork with UK National Air Traffic Services (NATS) to develop a safety case for RNP-enabled closely-spaced parallel approaches at Heathrow Airport.My role: A safety case was developed which was accepted as sufficient “in principle” (by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) in the UK) to permit the concept of operations to be implemented. I wrote the “Collision Risk Management Report” submitted to NATS in March 2010. Overall project: Implementation stalled due to economic and political reasons. However, with a change of government in the UK, there is renewed interest in reviving this activity (as of 2014).
2004-2006ATM consultant on Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS)Responsible for tracking global roadmaps for introduction of UAVs into the normal airspace environment, particularly with regard to safety certification. Technical liaison to Access 5 (NASA). Technical liaison to Boeing air traffic management group.My role: My analysis influenced system architecture design in order to meet global requirements. Overall project: Boeing X-45 entry was flight-tested, but J-UCAS program was later terminated by U.S. Air Force.
2004-2006Boeing lead representative on Access 5 (NASA)Provide industry technical inputs to the Access 5 team, which had the goal of introducing unmanned aerial systems (UAS) into a normal airspace environment. Goal was to produce a series of documents sufficient to enable UASs to fly in the NAS. Worked with representatives from other companies and organizations under the lead of NASA Langley.My role: Successful completion of “Work Package #8 (Reliability)” – which provided requirements, functional decomposition, and preliminary hazard assessment for UASs to participate in the National Airspace. Overall project: Access 5 was phased out in late 2006, and activities resumed under RTCA SC-203
2003-2004Technical co-leader of safety analysis for Global Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance System (GCNSS)Develop Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) – with BCA reliability group help — for Concept of Use (COU) for GCNSS, based on a future GCNSS-enabled flight from Cancun to Chicago (follows FAA OSA process). Robustness analysis (hazard, failure, vulnerability, maintenance, performance). Used FT+ and AvSim+ tools, State-space (Markov) models, and Monte Carlo simulation. COU employs System Wide Information Management (SWIM), network-enabled operations (NEO), and space-based communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS)  My role: Successful completion of comprehensive Robustness Analysis Report showing the feasibility of GCNSS. Overall project: SWIM work continues to this day, but massive satellite infrastructure effort was phased out due to economic and political reasons.
2003Technical safety lead on Gulf of Mexico Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) benefits studyDemonstrate the effect on safety in Gulf of Mexico over-water operations enabled by ADS-B.My role: Successful development of a Systems Dynamics model which showed the increased safety of ADS-B enabled operations. Overall project: Although not a direct consequence of this work, there is now extensive use of ADS-B by helicopters flying to oil rigs in the Gulf.
2000-2003Technical safety modeling and analysis lead on DESIDE projectBuild a comprehensive discrete event simulation model of parts of the National Airspace System (NAS).My role: Construct the piece of the model that analyzes the safety of the system, including the human-system interactions. Overall project: A very large team developed a working prototype of the modeling and analysis environment, but economic and political circumstances necessitated a funding withdrawal. However, many of the concepts and constructs survived in slightly less ambitious tools that are being applied by Boeing ATM today, both inside and outside the company.
2001-2002Boeing representative to Working Together Team (WTT)Ambitious strategy by Boeing to drive consensus among multiple stakeholders for the future of Global Air Traffic Management (GATM). Included airlines, service providers, regulators, aircraft manufacturers, and vendors. Idea was that Boeing would lead the charge as Large System Integrator (LSI)My role: Worked with several committees to develop strategies for driving global ATM development forward. Helped write several white papers. Overall project: After a year, it was clear that the political differences were too hard to overcome, so the project simply faded away quietly.

 

Job History: Boeing Defense and Space Group 1991-2000
DatesTitle or RoleJob DescriptionOutcome or Product
1995-2000Systems safety analyst for Joint Strike FighterTechnical lead for application of reliability and safety tools I had developed to the job of estimating Probability of Loss of Control (PLOC due to the X-32 flight control system. This tool was applied not only to the flight control system, but also to engine thrust, electrical, and hydraulic sub-systems.My role: Successful completion of complete safety analysis. Some findings were non-intuitive and surprised some of the traditional safety personnel, but the findings were later verified. Overall project: Boeing’s X-32 offering eventually lost out to Lockheed-Martin’s X-35 variant, currently the very troubled F-35 program.
1991-1995Safety methodology tool development and “Fly-By-Light” (FBL) airplane safety analysisSafety tool developer and analyst. Using a NASA Langley reliability execution engine, I developed a tool in the Block Oriented Network Simulator (BONeS) environment which presented the engineer with an easy-to-comprehend schematic-like user interface, and was capable of an “automated FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis)”.My role: Successful application of tool to the safety analysis of the FBL flight control system. This work was reported in the IEEE Proceedings on Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability (RAMS) in 1995 and 1996, and also in a NASA ICASE Report. Overall project: Boeing eventually decided that fiber optics was not ready for prime time in flight control system applications, so the FBL contract with NASA was terminated.